Is the world system near melt-down? | Sunday Observer

Is the world system near melt-down?

23 April, 2017

Russian bombers close to US shores :

China places forces near Koreas on high alert:

Will it all be a long bout of drama in a TV show? Will US President Donald Trump’s ‘anti-establishment’ movement and non-interventionist foreign policy pronouncements turn out to be no more than narrative devices in a grand scale ‘reality’ TV show? Was his seemingly unique presidential candidacy, sweeping aside all conventional rivals, a mere act?

The latest ‘act’ seems to be that that US Navy ‘armada’ apparently launched towards the Koreas last week did not go there after all! That naval force, reportedly one of the biggest since US operations in the Gulf Wars, now seems to have actually gone in a entirely different direction – towards the southwest Pacific and not the northwest Pacific (where Koreas are) – and, finally, passed through southern Indonesia.

Barely one hundred days into his presidency, Donald Trump, has begun doing the very things he said he would not do and has, for years, criticised when it was done by his predecessors. He criticised successive US presidents’ military interventions in West Asia and the Persian Gulf. His general foreign policy outlook during the presidential contest bluntly emphasised an US global posture that was non-interventionist to a degree that alarmed America’s closest geo-political allies.

Then, barely two months in to his presidency, Trump chose to react aggressively when North Korea routinely reacted to on-going annual US-South Korean joint military exercises with tests of its own military technology and weaponry. Pyongyang does this every time the joint US-South Korea military exercises take place. The Trump administration raised the stakes by hinting at US direct military action and, a sudden attack, at that.

In a visit to Moscow, US Vice President Pence virtually declared war against Syria and, days later came the Tomahawk missile strike against a Syrian airbase, the first, ever, US attack on Syria.

Last week we saw some early developments after the previous week’s shock US foreign policy reversals and corresponding military actions. China, which has repeatedly urged restraint from both Pyongyang and Washington, has now apparently placed its military forces on high alert, especially in its northern sectors close to the Koreas. That is according to US military sources quoted in the US media.

While Beijing has not directly responded to news media queries on this reported military move, analysts note that Beijing had also not outright denied any military preparations. Pyongyang has already warned that it would militarily respond to any US military action in the strongest possible manner.

Meanwhile, western news media reported last week that, China was seemingly allowing coal import shipments from North Korea to enter China. China had earlier halted coal imports from North Korea apparently as pressure on Pyongyang to scale down its militarism.

Both these developments indicate that China is not simply kowtowing to Washington just because Donald Trump has threatened direct action against North Korea.

Meanwhile, US and Canadian fighter jets were twice scrambled last week to intercept Russian long range military aircraft, including two nuclear capable long range bombers off the Alaskan coast. US defence authorities were quoted in the US news media about two successive detections of deployments of Russian aircraft last week close to American waters off Alaska state which is opposite the remote Russian far east coastline.

Russian military authorities confirmed the flights as being routine and pointed out that on both occasions the Russian aircraft had strictly observed procedure and had not intruded into any foreign country airspace. Analysts speculate that the military aircraft deployments may be a Russian response to the US’ aggressive action in the Syrian conflict. While such Russian deployments have occurred throughout past decades – just as US aircraft are similarly used – analysts note that this was the first such Russian aircraft deployment since 2015.

All this global tension between former Cold War rival powers with attendant fears of worldwide military conflict served to distract world attention away from other sudden developments in Europe. In the UK, Premier Theresa May’s Conservative Party government suddenly announced the holding of snap parliamentary elections in June, more than two years before its term ended.

Some analysts noted the policy reversal of the UK government after Premier May’s previous posture that her Conservative regime would remain in power and see through the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. The consensus seems to be among most watchers that it is wiser for the Conservative government to seek a fresh electoral mandate now, while its popularity is high and the main opposition Labour Party is in post-Referendum disarray. An improved majority will strengthen London’s hand in the difficult Brexit negotiations ahead.

Another Islamist lone attacker caused some mayhem in the very middle of Paris on Thursday night when he parked his BMW car on the prestigious Champs Elysees avenue and fired on a police bus with a Kalashnikov automatic rifle. The gunman killed one policeman before being shot dead himself.

What with Trump, his armada and the North Koreans, the world hardly noticed the Paris attack. France is already under a state of Emergency after a string of Islamist terror attacks last year.

In what seems to be its own first ‘fake news’ item, the Islamic State later claimed that one of its adherents carried out the Champs Elysees attack but named a Belgian Muslim rather than the person whom the French authorities have conclusively identified as the perpetrator. The French have identified the attacker as a 40-year-old French born citizen with a Muslim name.

The French Presidential election is just weeks away and already some of the contestants have already begun using the latest Islamist violence to push their various security policies. Far Right candidate Marie Le Pen has not hesitated to call for an immediate closure of all mosques.

Meanwhile, in Iran, which will hold presidential polls next month, saw some minor political excitement when the election authorities overruled an attempt by former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to again stand for the presidency. Analysts feel that the election authorities feared that Ahmadinejad’s fiery Iranian nationalism would disrupt the more moderate political discourse now prevailing in Iran, now perhaps the most stable Muslim state in the region.

Thus last week did see some seemingly aggressive counter actions by other world powers, namely Russia and China, to the US’ suddenly aggressive stances in the world. In this light, the world seems to inch closer to great power conflict again. But today, after the post-Cold War unilateralism of the Western powers in military adventures in central Asia and the Persian Gulf, one doubts the strength of the current global system to manage global scale conflict.

One can only hope that some of Washington’s new aggressiveness is yet another Trumpian act rather than real policy!

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