It’s the petro-dollars, folks. That is what takes USA’s new president Donald Trump to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, before he reaches the so-called ‘Holy Land’ of Israel on his first official tour abroad. The Saudi ruling clan and its related domestic and regional business clans are expected to shower the visiting US delegation with investment commitments on the one hand and, on the other, announce a massive US$ 110+ billion purchase of expensive American military hardware.
Even as a belligerent-sounding new American president hooks-up with his counterparts in the medievalistic, ultra-conservative Saudi monarchy, the most stable country in West Asia, Iran, successfully concluded its twelfth regular presidential elections with the current reformist leader retaining office. Contesting for his second term, incumbent President Hassan Rouhani, a liberal, modernising cleric, convincingly defeated his rival conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi who had campaigned on a populist, pro-rural platform.
Analysts note that alongside a lavish welcome to the visiting US President and negotiations over a range of economic deals, the Saudis are hosting a series of summit meetings that will enable the US leader to interact with Arab and Muslim leaders of the region. The entirety of the Arab and Muslim world in West Asia and northern Africa may hope to hear Donald Trump backtrack on – if not apologise for – his virulently anti-Muslim election campaign rhetoric.
But they are likely to be disappointed. True, the once-bombastically anti-Muslim, new Republican administration may be eating humble pie by making its very first foreign relations initiative in summits with Muslim leaders. But imperial Washington certainly won’t acknowledge this political retreat. It would be embarrassing not only to ‘Christian’ America but also to its closest regional ally Israel, who has to wait her turn in the US leader’s regional tour.
The Saudi visit, with its expected shiny economic windfalls, is what the 100+ days-old Republican regime hopes will save it from the on-going turmoil in Washington over successive political scandals triggered by the new President’s own actions. Indeed, the only value that Washington probably sees in the Israeli leg of the tour is the religious propaganda value of what is more of a pilgrimage rather than a state visit.
The Palestinian crisis is too complex for the current, poorly-prepared, White House incumbent to even begin to understand, let alone make any actual diplomatic initiative. This columnist doubts whether Trump will ever be interested in facilitating yet another peace negotiations effort over Palestine during his presidency.
And neither will the current Benjamin Netanyahu government want anything more than diplomatic rituals and solemn piety. After all, Tel Aviv’s strategy is to legitimise the current stalemate situation which enables a continuation of the Israeli illegal occupation of Palestine and the continued displacement of millions of Palestinian refugees.
The US arms deal with Riyadh involves the Saudi purchase of medium size warships, main battle tanks and other armoured vehicles, interceptor jets, and the THAAD anti-missile missile system. These sales of hi-tech, expensive armaments designed and produced by American firms will boost the US arms industry as against its several global rivals. This will help fulfil Trump’s election promise of protecting American industry to protect American jobs.
Just before the US President set off for Riyadh, yet another furore broke out when US news media reported that the husband of Trump’s daughter Ivanka, businessman Jared Kushner, who is now an official Presidential Adviser, had been part of discussions with the Saudi team that was negotiating the arms purchases. Rather than support US officials in getting the best deal possible for his own country, Presidential Adviser Kushner reportedly intervened in the negotiations to telephone US arms giant Lockheed Martin’s CEO to lobby for a price reduction on its prize THAAD missile system. What Kushner hoped to gain from helping foreign buyers get a cheaper deal on US products remains to be found out by those wishing to probe Trump and Kushner family interests in West Asia.
West Asian analysts expect that Arab and Sunni Muslim leaders attending the Riyadh summit meetings will focus Trump’s attention on what they perceive as the ‘threat’ from Iran. Hopefully, Trump’s advisers will at least brief the US President on the basics of Sunni-Shia denominational rivalry and its ramifications for West Asian geo-politics.
Again, Trump is not likely to bother about such nuances of strategy and diplomacy, since his limited intellect cannot fathom their significance. Strategists in Washington, however, will wish otherwise, in order that America does not get further bogged down in West Asian sectarian animosities due to yet another Trumpian gaffe.
From West Asia, Donald Trump flies to Brussels, Belgium, for a meeting of leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the US’ premier global military alliance. Just as much as President Trump has backed down from his crude anti-Muslim political positions, the new US leader also retreated from his equally simplistic anti-NATO positions very early in his presidency after a single meeting with the NATO secretary general. (Similarly, Trump reversed his attitude towards China after his first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.)
The NATO meeting will enable Trump to be observed for the first time by many European leaders who have had to watch him from afar as he publicly belittled their precious military ‘umbrella’, NATO, while also posturing in ways that defied the decorum and stature expected of a political leader. Rather than political accomplishment, Trump is better known for his tweeting of personal insults against top leaders, disparaging of friendly countries and their governments and, worse, making utterly sexist and racist public remarks on election platforms like any gutter politician.
How far Trump will go in pro-actively endorsing a strong NATO posture on Russia’s intervention in troubled Ukraine remains to be seen.
Departing Washington, Donald Trump left behind a capital in turmoil with his own party leadership increasingly divided over their controversial president. The Republicans who now dominate both the Senate and the House of Representatives, face mid-term congressional elections next year and, are aware of growing public dissatisfaction over the presidential antics and the lack of legislative initiatives such as on better healthcare.
Republicans are beginning to debate internally whether they should ditch this troublesome President in order to ensure continued dominance in next year’s elections or, risk all in supporting him in the hope that the Russia conspiracy and related corruption is, indeed, ‘fake news’.
After the very controversial sacking of FBI Director James Comey, the White House seemingly lost control of the situation amid the huge political uproar that followed. The uproar was worsened by further media reports of Trump behaviour such as the disclosure of vital security intelligence to visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
The White House, while denying any ‘betrayal’ of US interests by this Presidential blunder, has not been able to explain why Trump’s National Security Adviser had to hurriedly inform certain intelligence agencies about this disclosure by Trump to officials of the US’ currently principal geo-political rival, Russia.
Many western observers today are concerned more about possible further Trumpian blunders during his foreign tour rather than about any political success that the US President may gain.