Humans took a long, long time to reach the landmark of one billion population, but from there onwards, it did not take much time to reach seven billion, a goal reached in 2011. There were only one billion people on the planet as recently as the turn of the 19th century and only a few hundred thousand just 10,000 years ago. In fact, there may have been only 15,000 Homo sapiens just 70,000 years ago.
Latest UN reports indicate that the current world population of nearly 7.6 billion will increase to 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Around 150 babies are born around the world every minute.
India’s population is expected to surpass China’s in about seven years and Nigeria is projected to overtake the United States and become the third most populous country in the world shortly before 2050. Roughly 83 million people are added to the world’s population every year and the upward trend is expected to continue even with a continuing decline in fertility rates, which have fallen steadily since the 1960s. Some areas such as Europe will actually see a population decline over the next few years.
The UN forecasts that from now through 2050 half the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just nine countries – India, Nigeria, Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, United States, Uganda and Indonesia. The 10 most populous countries with low fertility levels are China, United States, Brazil, Russia, Japan, Vietnam, Germany, Iran, Thailand and United Kingdom, the report said.
Fertility
The UN report titled “The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision,” said fertility has been declining in nearly all regions in recent years. Between 2010 and 2015, “the world’s women had 2 1/2 births per woman over a lifetime – but this number varies widely around the world.”
These are among the issues that will be highlighted during the World Population Day activities on July 11 (Tuesday). World Population Day, which seeks to focus attention on the urgency and importance of population issues, was established by the then-Governing Council of the United Nations Development Programme in 1989, as an outgrowth of the interest generated by the Day of Five Billion, which was observed on July 11, 1987.
While some countries are experiencing a low birth rate, many other countries, especially, developing ones, are saddled with the problem of unwanted pregnancies that lead to illegal abortions and maternal deaths. Around the world, some 225 million women who want to avoid pregnancy are not using safe and effective family planning methods, for reasons ranging from lack of access to information or services to lack of support from their partners or communities. Most of these women with an unmet demand for contraceptives live in 69 of the poorest countries on earth. According to the UN, access to voluntary family planning is a human right. It is also central to women’s empowerment, and is a key factor in reducing poverty in LDCs.
The 2017 World Population Day coincides with the Family Planning Summit, the second meeting of the FP2020–Family Planning 2020–initiative, which aims to expand access to voluntary family planning to 120 million additional women by 2020. However, some countries which have very low birth rates are actively encouraging couples to produce more babies, because the ageing population is not being replaced at a satisfactory rate. In fact, more and more countries now have fertility rates below the level of roughly 2.1 births per woman needed to replace the current generation, the report said. During the 2010-2015 period, fertility was below the replacement level in 83 countries comprising 46 percent of the world’s population.
Low fertility levels usually lead to an older population, the report noted. It forecasts that the number of people aged 60 or above will more than double from the current 962 million to 2.1 billion in 2050 and more than triple to 3.1 billion in 2100. Most developing and even developed countries lack the protection networks needed to support an ageing population.
Population
The problem with an expanded population is not space per se. The entire world population can fit into the State of California with room to spare. It is one that has enough of availability of resources for everyone on the planet. One word that we often partner with the word “population” is food. Indeed, the world can feed 11 billion people with the food already being produced. So why are nearly one billion people going hungry every day even now ?
The problem seems to be in the distribution, with some rich countries throwing away excess food while some Least Developed Countries suffer a famine. Industrialized nations combine to waste a staggering 222 million metric tonnes of perfectly edible (not expired) food every year, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
Another challenge is that the arable area remains the same, so we have to think of concepts such as soil-less/hydro farming, vertical farming and indoor farming. Arable land is one of nine “planetary boundaries” that scientists have identified—limits past which humanity should fear to tread. The other boundaries include: climate change, biodiversity loss, nutrient cycles, ocean acidification and freshwater use. The meat industry may not be sustainable in the long run as it uses a vast amount of resources for a diminishing return – scientists have already made rudimentary quantities of artificial meat. These should be commonplace in the next decade, though.
But, there is an even more serious factor that many have not taken into account – energy, which some scientists call the “master resource”. Will there be energy for everyone in the next few decades, especially, with most fossil fuels predicted to run out by around 2100 ? This is why countries around the world are pushing renewable energy projects which may provide energy for everyone well into the next century. For example, Sri Lanka alone has a wind power potential of 5,000 MW and we have barely scratched the surface there. Tropical countries also have a good potential for solar power, which too is under-utilized.
Existence
There is another school of thought that we are at the very limits of our existence on Earth, given the rapid use of resources and the threat of climate change. Celebrated physicist Stepehen Hawking surmises that mankind should leave the Earth for habitable planets in the Solar System and beyond in the next 100 years if possible. We do not yet have the technology for sustained interstellar travel, unless a big breakthrough happens.
In the meantime, mankind should learn to use the existing resources wisely so that the expanding population will not pose a problem.