The die is cast, at long last. After many months of speculation, gesturing, posturing and statements to the contrary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa says, “I’m ready if you are”.
The former all-powerful Defence Secretary and Rajapaksa sibling was recently alluding to the Presidential Elections which have to be held some time this year, so that the next President (or the next term of the President) can be in office by January 8, 2020.
Rajapaksa’s statement was the most unequivocal yet, from the outspoken former Army officer whose main claim to fame is successfully prosecuting the Eelam war against the Tamil Tigers to a finish, ending the thirty-year scourge of terrorism in the country. To be fair, he has every right to stake his claim and let the people of Sri Lanka decide whether they want him as their Head of State.
Since Rajapaksa’s announcement, the media has gone into overdrive speculating about his potential candidacy and the impact it can have on the body politic. This, despite Rajapaksa facing some serious hurdles before he could even become a candidate: his United States citizenship, which from all accounts he is yet to renounce, and the many charges he is facing in the local courts.
Nevertheless, Rajapaksa’s statement was no bolt from the blue. In fact, it would have been surprising had he not offered himself as a candidate after all the trouble he had taken to create organisations such as, the ‘Viyath Maga’ and ‘Eliya’. They had only one objective: create and carry the message that Gotabaya is the next Messiah, the next best alternative to Mahinda, if you couldn’t have the latter.
If Rajapaksa’s announcement came as something of an anti-climax, the real surprise was to follow. Eldest of the Rajapaksa siblings, Chamal Rajapaksa then appeared to throw his hat into the ring saying, “I’m also ready”.
Now, with all due respect to the patriarch of the Rajapaksa clan, Chamal Rajapaksa was hardly thought of as presidential material. Still, stranger things have happened. A few weeks before the 2015 Presidential Elections, the then General Secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Maithripala Sirisena was not thought of as Presidential material!
So, has there been an all-out fracas at Medamulana where former Police officer, elder brother Chamal had said, ‘what’s good for you is good for me too’ to former Army officer, younger brother Gotabaya? Are the two brothers now at loggerheads with each other, unable to decide who should lay claim to the family heirloom, the Presidency of Sri Lanka?
That is what sections of the media- and indeed social media- would have us believe- that cracks are finally appearing in the sahodara samaagama or the brotherhood of brothers who presided over the nation for ten years.
The truth, we would suggest is quite the opposite. That is certainly not the case. If anything, the brotherhood of brothers is even stronger. If Gotabaya Rajapaksa is the number one choice to run the Presidential race, then Chamal Rajapaksa is the fall-back option, just in case the younger Rajapaksa trips over one of the many obstacles standing in his way.
That was, however, not the only motive in Chamal Rajapaksa- who would be seventy-seven years of age at the time of the next Presidential election and would be eighty-two if he were to complete a full term of office- suddenly announcing that he had Presidential ambitions.
It was to send a powerful message to another party, the SLFP, where party minions such as its newly appointed General Secretary, Dayasiri Jayasekera, is publicly declaring that President Sirisena will be its candidate. The President himself has however remained non-committal and has not made any statement to this effect yet.
There is speculation in the SLFP that President Sirisena wishes to run for Presidency again. While he had publicly pledged to be a ‘one term’ President at the beginning of his term of office, the political landscape has undergone seismic changes since then: his rapport with the United National Party (UNP) has evaporated and the SLFP is being threatened by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
If not for any other reason, President Sirisena wouldn’t wish to go down in history as the person who presided over the downfall and demise of the SLFP, the party that governed the country for more than half the period since independence. If he does not run for Presidency, he would be abdicating his responsibility as SLFP leader, allowing the SLPP to fill the political niche now occupied by the SLFP.
Given this background and considering the recent mending of fences between President Sirisena and the Rajapaksas, there has been heightened expectation, at least in the SLFP, that the Rajapaksas and the SLPP would support and endorse President Sirisena’s candidacy at the next Presidential election.
An argument in support of such a proposition is that Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the preferred candidate of the SLPP in the enforced absence of Mahinda Rajapaksa, could be handicapped at the eleventh hour with the possibility that an adverse verdict in a court case could disqualify him from contesting. Because of that, the SLPP would be better off hedging its bets and supporting President Sirisena.
That such a fate may befall Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidential ambitions is indeed a distinct possibility. This is not lost on Mahinda Rajapaksa or the SLPP. Their response, instead of seeking to endorse President Sirisena, is to make it known that they have another ace up their sleeve: Chamal Rajapaksa.
This then is the real reason behind Chamal Rajapaksa, a politician who hardly seeks the limelight and one who kept a very low profile even when he was Speaker of Parliament, suddenly emerging from the woodwork and claiming that he too was ready to run.
Seen in this context, the message from the Rajapaksa camp to President Sirisena is loud and clear: if Gotabaya cannot run, Chamal will. The President is not their fall-back option, Chamal is. Therefore, it is time for President Sirisena to make up his mind: will he run again for presidential office? It is also time for him to let the nation know what he intends doing.