This article is not about the Executive Presidency or why it is good or bad for Sri Lanka. Instead, it is about how last week’s discussion of the key issue that has dominated political discourse for the better part of 25 years has reshaped the political landscape of Sri Lanka on the cusp of a presidential election.
Earlier this week, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, in an interview to a daily newspaper and issuing a press release, announced that “the next President should be the last”. He said that he was ready to run for the top job, with those forces that are for abolishing Executive Presidency (EP). Two days later, President Maithripala Sirisena called for an emergency Cabinet meeting to check the direction of the wind on abolition of the presidency. With the failure to obtain approval to the Cabinet proposal, new political fault lines have appeared in the country’s fraught political sphere.
Why now?
Prior to the proposal being brought before the Cabinet of Ministers last Thursday (19) President Sirisena discussed the matter with the Leader of the Opposition, Mahinda Rajapaksa. The intentions behind the move for each leader may have been different. For President Sirisena, it presented an opportunity to abolish it and improve his legacy and probably prolong his Presidency. For Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, it would have helped him to avoid the candidacy challenge from Minister Sajith Premadasa. Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa may have seen a chance to become the next First Citizen.
After the Cabinet meeting ended, a jubilant sounding Sajith Premadasa announced that there was a “Sajith-Phobia” that was driving the eleventh hour move to abolish the presidency. On the face of it, the Prime Minister and Speaker Karu Jayasuriya are the biggest losers, as Karu Jayasuriya had just announced his willingness to run for Presidency with those forces in favour of abolishing it. However, this new political development has some unforeseen outcomes.
Political relevance of abolishing EP as a slogan
The JVP proposed the 20th Amendment and set the process in motion in the Parliament. The need to abolish the Executive Presidency was backed by intense civil society pressure to abolish the office. The JVP can now claim that they are the only party to abolish it, as others are paying only mere lip service. JVP will try to highlight how this has been a political theme all throughout the years, that has now been abandoned. They will explain to the electorate why they will be the only party to carry out that reform.
Civil society has found the tables turned on them by those who came to power with their support. Now, traditional civil society that campaigned on a reforms and democracy platform will go silent for a while until they recalibrate to address finer aspects of the theme. Pragmatically, this incident has significantly reduced their relevance in the coming election.
For the Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, just as he announced his readiness to undertake the abolition of EP, he finds the rug pulled from under his feet. Now it cannot be a main political theme anymore in a campaign. He will be pushed to reconsider his candidacy and election campaign to sync with the current social and political theme. As such, a new set of issues will emerge on his platform, in the event that he decides to remain an active player.
Minister Sajith Premadasa will distance himself from the theme in the future, or he may reconsider making amends to his position to win back the sympathy of the JVP and Tamil National Alliance (TNA).
The bubble effect: political alienation of Minister Sajith Premadasa
As the JVP was the initiator of the move to obtain the support of the government/Cabinet to abolish EP, they will be unable to support a Premadasa candidacy in any form whatsoever.
So will be the position of TNA as reflected in the strongly worded tweet by MP Sumanthiran: “Disappointed with the “Yahapalanayas” who oppose the move to abolish EP. Selfishness and opportunism at its worst.” Premadasa, therefore, will have to resort to his party’s votes in support of his presidential bid, without the TNA and JVP (Directly or indirectly).In this situation, Premadasa will find himself increasingly restricted to his home-grown support base.
In order to compensate for losing of TNA or JVP support in any form he will be compelled to appeal more strongly to his traditional base in stronger rhetoric, taking an increasingly nationalistic/chauvinist tone. A first glimpse of this was seen in his statement to the media at Galle Face following the Cabinet meeting. So, he is likely to venture further into the Sinhala nationalist rhetoric, a territory dominated by SLPP. Such restriction of political support bases could make it difficult for him to prove his ability to win a Presidential election, and therefore, the candidacy of UNP.
A Great Unifier needed
Now that the rug has been pulled under his feet, the Speaker’s previous theme has been rendered unusable. However, as Sajith gets increasingly restricted in his appeal to a broader platform, the political relevance of both Prime Minister and Speaker, as ‘Great Unifiers’ could increase. Some immediate thematic areas to look at would be broad themes such as, ‘united Sri Lanka, where all are treated with dignity and respect’, economic reforms, prosperity and job creation.
Intentions of Wickremesinghe becoming the Presidential candidate have not been clearly announced, but goes without saying, as the party leader.
He may want to test his chances against Sajith Premadasa in the Working Committee of the Party, where he seems to command support. He may even elect himself the candidate. Yet, the need for a unifier between the loser and the winner remains. Therefore, the chance of all three key personalities, Ranil Wicremesinghe, Karu Jayasuriya and Sajith Premadasa remains.
Conclusion
The decision on September 19 against abolishing the Executive Presidency diminishes the political relevance of abolition of Executive Presidency as a political slogan and rallying point.
Therefore, civil society groups that have harped on good governance and democracy will find their political clout greatly diminished. Popular applicant for the Presidential candidacy, Sajith Premadasa will be increasingly alienated from the wider masses, especially those sympathizing with JVP and TNA. Not having JVP, either on his side or providing tacit support, could prove costly. He will try to compensate for this loss by appealing to nationalist vote bases, competing with SLPP in its own domain. The Speaker has a new role to unite all on a new thematic platform that everybody can agree on.