Russian operations in Ukraine | Sunday Observer
Upholding neutrality in the midst of crisis:

Russian operations in Ukraine

6 March, 2022

As war unfolds in Europe with Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, the direction of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy and implications on the rest of the world has become a contentious topic.

Sri Lanka has been a long-standing partner of both Russia and Ukraine, benefiting from their military prowess, especially during Sri Lanka’s war against terror, and economic support in the form of bilateral agreements as well as tourists.

Dr. Harinda Vidanage, Head of the Department of Strategic Studies, Sir John Kotelawala Defence University, speaking to the Sunday Observer, analysed the global ramifications of the war and prospects for Sri Lanka, while indicating the direction Sri Lanka can take.

“Sri Lanka has a right to have a relationship with Russia as well as with Ukraine. We don’t need to substitute one relationship with another. Befriending certain countries does not draw sanctions,” he said.

Following are excerpts of the interview:

Q:What are the effects on Sri Lanka of Russia’s war in Ukraine?

A. Sri Lanka is going through a challenging time due to the foreign exchange crisis, energy crisis and issues with food security. Since we are in a difficult financial situation, we have to be careful about our foreign relations. At the moment, we have a foreign policy based on neutrality. We have a deep involvement with infrastructure projects with China and have significant credit lines provided by the Indian Government. We are working with the Americans as well.

So, we have to be sensitive to these aspects when we respond to the war in Ukraine and be extra careful of our diplomatic relations, with a carefully calibrated statecraft adhered to in the future.

Sri Lanka needs the support of all countries given the situation that we are in. We cannot become hostile with Russia nor antagonise the US. We recently celebrated 65 years of diplomatic relations with Russia and we must maintain ties.

The immediate impact for Sri Lanka will be in the area of food and energy security. Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of wheat. The eastern region of Ukraine is the most affected where certain parts were under Russian control and saw a lot of Russian incursions and conflicts. It is also the most fertile.

In addition, Ukraine and Russia together probably account for one quarter of the global wheat supply which will be disrupted with the ongoing sanctions on Russia. If trading with Russia becomes difficult, there will be a serious shortage of the global staple.

Although Sri Lanka doesn’t import wheat directly from Ukraine, we will be impacted from the global shortage and see an unprecedented increase of prices of flour which will have a bearing on the cost of life of an average Sri Lankan.

As we speak, a barrel of oil would have increased. If the fighting intensifies and sanctions increase against Russia with the hardening of stance on Russia by the EU and US, it will lead to the further increase of oil prices and natural gas, having a serious impact on Sri Lanka. Out of absolute necessity, however, Europeans won’t be able to sustain sanctions for long.

On the other hand, we’ve had a significant number of tourists from Russia and Ukraine. It will be difficult for Russian tourists to come as certain airspaces have been closed. International transactions for Russians are limited. For Ukrainians, of course, certain commercial airfields are closed. Therefore, we will see a lot of cancellations.

Q:How would the war impact on defence policies of states in general?

A.Regarding the European security architecture or balance, Europe has had a fairly secure neighbourhood. But now, it will have a significant upscale in security.

For example, Germany has suddenly decided to increase its defence spending by 100 million Euros to modernise their military. This is a clear shift of policy. They’ll have to abandon certain earlier notions of demilitarisation, and spend more money on high tech weapons.

Their previous focus on development, trade and expanding markets may have to shift to defence. Europe, therefore, will have to modernise their military capabilities. This is a big shift for Europe which enjoyed relative calm.

I don’t think the US wants to start a conflict in Europe against the Russian Federation. But they do want to show their power. At the moment, they use sanctions to meet this end.

Countries’ relations will have a deeper impact ensuing global instability. Certain countries might chose sides. If Russians keep pushing into Ukraine and are militarily successful, it will send a strong message to European countries that Russia is trying to expand it. Countries surrounding Ukraine will be worried that Russia will turn on them as well.

If the Americans convince Europeans to go to war against Russia, this will lead to a certain Russian counterattack which will be devastating, given Russia’s military might. But I don’t think other European countries will want to drag themselves to a war at this point when inflation is high as a result of Covid.

On the other hand, the war is producing a lot of refugees and most people are being relocated in countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Moldova, and so on.

When refugees cross over to other countries during a conflict - although they are welcomed initially - there will be internal challenges and problems in the long run due to changes in demography, which may lead to political issues.

Q:Sri Lanka remains neutral. On Wednesday, we abstained from voting at the UN on the resolution demanding Russia to end military operations in Ukraine. However, should Sri Lanka raise a voice against violence and conflict? How can we manage relations with both Russia and Ukraine?

A. We will always remain neutral in our foreign relations. Neutrality allows a country to respond in a manner that does not harm the interest of other countries. At the same time, neutrality is not a singular form. We can be neutral and we’ve been successfully having strong connections with India, China and Russia, whatever their role, regionally and globally.

In a conflict situation, we can still be pragmatic considering long-term diplomatic ties such as those with Russia. We can be general about our position and not condone violence. But that doesn’t mean that we need to completely stop interacting with those countries.

There is no reason for us, based on the Ukraine situation, to cut or limit ties with Russia. We can maintain the same position with Ukraine. The latter has been important to Sri Lanka in our war against terror as Ukraine has been a prime provider of armament, mostly for our Air Force and Ukrainian servicemen had served in Sri Lanka. We need to maintain relations with all.

Q:Considering the Russia-China alliance and Sri Lanka’s close relations with China, is there possibility that Sri Lanka could face sanctions for continuing close relations with opponents of the West?

A No, I don’t think Sri Lanka will face any form of sanctions relating to the Ukraine situation. Sanctions are a form of foreign policy to prevent certain action that violates rights and harmful to the survival of a certain group of people.

A country cannot use sanctions to dictate relationships. Sri Lanka has a right to have a relationship with Russia as well as with Ukraine. We don’t need to substitute one relationship with another but be more accommodative. So, befriending certain countries does not draw sanctions.

We need to follow what India is doing. They are very careful with how they navigate their foreign policy. India is also reliant on Russia as almost 60 percent of India’s military inventory still has a Russian origin or basis. India’s vast weaponry is made in Russia. So, it is important to consider India’s foreign policy towards the unfolding crisis and follow the example.

Q:How long do you think this war would last and what do you think the end result would be?

A The war would probably take more time than anyone expected. The Russians’ prime target is Kyiv. They want to topple the Ukrainian Government to install a pro-Russian Government, depriving Ukraine’s military capabilities.

When this happens, Ukraine will have to rely on a major power, which is Russia. I think Russia wants this to be a quick operation and quick change of Government. If they succeed, Russia will seek legitimacy: see who accepts this Government.

We need to see if countries like China, Iran and India will accept it, which will lead to a kind of normalisation and expansion of Russian interest. We still can’t say exactly as this is still a militarised issue. War would result in challenges that were not anticipated and on the other hand, even draw people together.

A lot of information is coming to us about the war, significantly through social media. In conditions where narratives are made daily, sometimes, we wouldn’t know what is true or the outcomes.

Russia has taken a conventional approach in this war to suppress Ukraine with heavy machinery. But Ukraine has been mastering to counter political propaganda. One of the strong suits of President Vladimir Putin’s Government was the effective political propaganda. But the Ukrainian President also has a way of using language and other means to win over countries. At the end of the day, it is about legitimacy.

 

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