A bloody attack on an otherwise sleepy, picturesque, resort town in Kashmir has added to the war fears of South Asians even as they worry over their migrant worker kin in war-battered neighbouring West Asia.
After the alleged Kashmiri militant strike killed some 25 Indian (and one Nepali) tourists on April 22, New Delhi slammed its toughest sanctions on neighbouring Pakistan since even before the Kargil War of 1999.
Our own neighbourhood of South Asia now has its own war worries as India heaped sanctions on Pakistan in retaliation for the massacre of Indian tourists in the small town of Pahalgam in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
While the world waits for concrete information about this massacre, none of the perpetrators have been captured or been identified. Other details, such as the exact number of perpetrators or their movement routes either in approaching the site of attack – a remote picnic location in the forested hills outside the town – or their escape, are also yet to be established.
Pahalgam (pop. 9,300) is in north central Kashmir and is a beautiful mountain resort at 7,000 feet (2,000 m) altitude and, also known as the starting point of the annual pilgrimage to the sacred Amarnath Cave and Shiva Temple, which takes place in July–August. Last Tuesday morning a small group of well-armed men had emerged from the fir forest on the outskirts of the town, accosted gathered tourists and gunned them down. The number of attackers is estimated as six.
News reports indicate that many, if not all, the attackers were in military style combat dress and some wore helmets with attached video cameras. None of the attackers have been captured so far. Since it was far from the town itself, apparently the militants had time to segregate the men from the women and children and then killed the men, after telling the women that they would not be harmed.
They also apparently wanted to kill only Indians, though for some reason they had gunned down the Nepali citizen as well. Reportedly the attack had lasted less than 30 minutes after which the suspected militants had faded away into the thick forests surrounding Pahalgam.
The Indian authorities are blaming the incident – with the highest casualties in years – on Kashmiri “terrorists” who had crossed over the ‘Line of Control’ (LoC) from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir into the Indian-occupied part. Kashmir was an independent kingdom till 1948 when India and Pakistan had separately declared freedom from British colonial rule and then fought their first war to divide the Kashmiri kingdom between them.
Four conventional-scale wars
The two South Asian nuclear powers have fought four conventional-scale wars so far, the last being the war over the mountainous Kargil border region when the Indian Forces out-gunned the Pakistanis who had briefly taken control of that remote but strategically important zone.
In the uproar over Tuesday’s sudden attack, the New Delhi Government has adopted a harsh posture that seemingly brings to bear a broad-spectrum response, rather disproportionate to what appears to be a carefully planned but isolated strike. But Delhi claims that the attack had “cross-border” implications.
Delhi points to the statement purportedly issued online by ‘The Resistance Front’ a little-known Kashmiri militant outfit that operates on both sides of the current LOC. The Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack, is believed to be supported by the much larger Pakistan-based Lashkar-E-Taiba (or, Tayyibah), a well-established Pakistani Islamist militia that India remembers most for its bloody urban guerilla onslaught on Mumbai.
Significantly, that ‘Front’ group (whose existence is confirmed by various sources) issued an online statement four days later withdrawing its claim and denying any involvement in the Pahalgam attack. This has not deterred most Indian news outlets from blaming the Resistance Front and LeT for Tuesday’s massacre in Pahalgam.
Indeed, India is now engulfed in a virtual hysteria of blaming Pakistan and “Islamic terrorism”. Sri Lankans will remember similar anti-Tamil and anti- Muslim public uproar at the slightest provocation or incitement – whether due to actual (but unidentified) violent incidents or due to speeches by extremist elements inciting anti-minority hatred.
Islamabad
Islamabad is now claiming that the Pahalgam attack may be a ‘false flag’ operation – implying that Delhi may have set up the attack to revive somewhat dormant anti-Pakistan sentiments among Indians due to the relative bilateral calm in recent years. Pakistan is calling for an independent inquiry to establish the facts of this tragic incident.
But Pakistani groups have a record of supporting covert cross-border militancy not only against India but also, at the behest of the United States, into Soviet Russian-occupied Afghanistan. Islamabad’s reputation of such international meddling is far greater than Delhi’s, which is also known to have occasionally supported tribal militia in Afghanistan and Pakistan and also, at one time, secessionist groups in Sri Lanka.
It is also notable that the UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution condemning the Pahalgam incident has not even hinted as to the identity of the perpetrators. Delhi has yet to provide any convincing information to back its claims that, firstly, there was indeed a cross-border penetration from the Pakistani side of the ‘LOC’ that divides Pakistani and Indian occupied Kashmir. Nor has India been able to convince the world – except its own Hindu majority population – that the Pakistani Government was involved in any way.
Readers are now familiar with the mounting evidence of a possible operation that manipulated a small band of Islamist fanatics of this country into carrying out the Easter Sunday suicide bombings. These are, after all, typical deception operations used by political groups within and outside state systems in the course of politics and geopolitics since humans began organised warfare.
Two weeks after the attack there is little concrete information. The terrorists seem to have disappeared into the forests without a trace. A gunfight between an Indian patrol and unidentified terrorists elsewhere in embattled Kashmir is now being linked to the Pahalgam perpetrators but with no backing evidence other than speculation that those attackers were one and the same.
A joint cordon and search operation is now under way by the Indian Army, paramilitary units and, the State Police to track down the militants. Up to 1,500 people were detained for questioning. Indian authorities claim that they have digital traces of phone transmissions leading to safe houses in Pakistan in Muzaffarabad and Karachi. They claim forensic evidence and intelligence intercepts that suggest potential support from within Pakistan.
Indus Treaty
In spite of the lack of concrete evidence of a Pakistani connection or the identity of the perpetrators, Delhi has initiated a heavy-handed response going far beyond the military security and diplomatic dimensions. India has closed its entire land border with Pakistan while asking certain categories of visiting Pakistanis to leave. The closure of land borders virtually halts bilateral economic engagements between South Asia’s two largest economies.
But what worries the international community most is Delhi’s abrupt and unprecedented suspension of participation in the famous Indus Waters Treaty between the two countries. The Indus Treaty provides for the water management of one of the world’s biggest river systems, namely the Indus River, with its six massive tributary rivers. This huge river system enables a vast fertile set of ‘riparian’ valleys that make up Pakistan’s main agricultural belt and, is also a vital drainage system for north-western India.
Pakistan has already declared that any disruption of the Indus water supply – which would literally devastate Pakistan’s agriculture and food security – would be an “act of war” by India. Pakistan has also closed its airspace to India while asking Indian citizens of various categories to leave Pakistan. Islamabad also said that it was suspending participation in the old Simla Peace Agreement of 1971 (when India helped Bangladesh gain independence).
This tit-for-tat has already gone from being the usual diplomatic actions such as reduced DPL staff – which is also happening – to major economic and geopolitical actions. Even Indian TV channels joined in, stopping the live coverage of the ongoing Pakistan Super League (PSL) and also some other Pakistani TV programs. It has also banned Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from allowing the social media accounts of Pakistani politicians and film stars. Analysts are comparing Delhi’s actions in response to Pahalgam with the Indian response to the Mumbai attack of 2008.
Broad spectrum
Analysts said that the Mumbai attack which lasted for four days, severely damaged major installations such as hotels and railway stations, killed and injured hundreds of civilians and traumatised millions, had overtly implicated the Lashkar eTayyiba (LeT) and its Pakistani handlers. But that still did not generate the broad spectrum response that Delhi is now showing for Pahalgam.
The emerging Indo-Pak stand-off and its immediate implications for regional security and stability starkly highlights the complete lack of any regional mechanism to defuse such inter-state tensions. This is why the disparaging of SAARC is meaningless and, indeed, politically harmful.
At present, Delhi seems to be as heavy-handed as Washington in its responses to big national challenges. In Washington’s case, the ham-handedness is a mix of political amateurishness (by the Right-Wing White House) and Donald Trump’s electoral savvy.
In Delhi, we have one of the world’s most sophisticated, skilled, technocracies (unlike the Trump White House) but the political leadership above them may lack a matching sophistication. In Delhi, the politicians may lack the cunning of Trump. They must calibrate their bravado to serve their electoral goals but without miscalculating the geopolitical, transnational ramifications.
