The Iran-Israel War has entered its second week, with US President Donald Trump injecting more uncertainty into unfolding events by declaring a two-week period for contemplating whether to become the third player in the conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is itching to involve the US, as only the latter has the equipment needed to destroy Fordow, the deepest nuclear research centre in Iran some 80 metres underground.
Indeed, this is exactly what President Trump has to decide on – whether to use the Northrop B-2 Stealth Bomber to deliver the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) “Bunker Buster” to obliterate Fordow. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned of the inherent dangers of attacking nuclear facilities.
In the meantime, President Trump hopes to coerce Iran into talks with the US and Israel on de-escalating the conflict and giving up nuclear weapons research. Having torn up the earlier Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear research agreement reached by six countries including Iran and the US, President Trump sought to negotiate a new deal with Iran. Several rounds of talks were held. This drew Israel’s ire, especially in the midst of reports that Iran was just “weeks away” from enriching Uranium to 90 percent and developing a nuclear bomb. This Israeli viewpoint contrasted sharply with that of US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard, who maintained that Iran was not yet close to developing a nuclear device.
Since there has been an intense debate in President Donald Trump’s MAGA-sphere about the merits and demerits of US participation in the Iran-Israel War. Tulsi and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson are fiercely opposed to “foreign wars” which should be anathema under Trump’s “America First” policy. They have cited the chaos left behind in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan through Western intervention.
But some anti-Iran hardliners in Trump’s inner circle and the Congress consider Iran as an existential threat to the US and Israel and are calling for US involvement, at least on a limited scale. This tussle has put Trump between a rock and a hard place, as he will have to choose one viewpoint at the end of the day. Trump does not seem to favour meddling in the Iran-Israel conflict, but he is under immense pressure to do so by hardliners in the US and Israel. Nevertheless, he has ruled out US involvement in any possible assassination attempt on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which Israel has vowed to pursue in an overt attempt at “Regime Change” in Tehran.
In fact, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said that Khamenei “cannot continue to exist”, as he likened the Iranian leader to a “modern-day Hitler” in a post on X. Khamenei indirectly replied to this post in an X post in English, saying that Iran will never bow down to Israel and will continue to retaliate as long as Israeli missile attacks on Iran continue. The two countries have now sent waves of missiles and drones each other’s way, killing and injuring mainly civilians, though Iran also lost several top generals and nuclear scientists in Israeli attacks. Iranian attacks have also exposed some chinks in Israel’s “Iron Dome” missile defence system as some of their missiles penetrated it without much resistance.
For Netanyahu, the battle against Iran has given some respite from the relentless international criticism of the Israeli Defence Forces’ (IDF) genocidal campaign against the starving civilians in Gaza by shifting the attention to the carnage in Tehran and Tel Aviv. But a world glued to the scenes from the two capitals on TV screens should not forget the plight of Gazans who have lost almost everything they had apart from their indomitable spirit for freedom.
A Middle East North Africa (MENA) region on fire is never a good thing for the rest of the world, which is susceptible to even minor changes in energy prices. Oil prices have already gone up in the world market, though no shortages are predicted as OPEC currently has an oversupply.
But if the conflict persists for several more weeks or months, petroleum regulators and companies might be compelled to increase pump prices, adding to the consumers’ cost of living and inflationary worries.
Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), though Israel, which already has nuclear weapons, is not. Thus Iran cannot legally pursue a nuclear weapon, though it should have the right to develop civilian nuclear applications. The world lost a chance to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions with the tearing up of the JCPOA, which is subject to stringent IAEA on-site and remote inspections. This may have emboldened Iran to let go of any inhibitions and develop a bomb.
But the stark reality is that no one wants another country to have the bomb, least of all in a volatile region such as the Middle East. There is still a faint hope that diplomatic efforts will succeed during the next two weeks.
