War is easy, peace is not. That is a lesson that humanity has learned after all wars, modern or ancient. Peace is almost always fragile, especially in tinderbox areas such as the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
In the immediate aftermath of the Iran-Israel ceasefire, the world is waiting with bated breath, hoping that no more missiles and drones will fly over Tehran and Tel Aviv. Missiles even rained down on a US base in Qatar, though no harm was done as Iran gave advance notice to the US.
President Donald Trump rightly took credit for achieving a ceasefire between the two arch enemies. Israel already has nuclear warheads and Iran, a signatory to the United Nations Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) apparently wanted to develop them – which was, in fact, the basis for the war in the first place. Israel has been looking for a window to bomb Iran for some time, but wanted help from the US as it had neither the weapons nor the delivery technology to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
The US, having indeed done this for Israel with a lightning B-2 Stealth strike on the Fordo nuclear site with bunker busting “Mother of All Bombs” (the 15,000 Kilo Massive Ordnance Penetrator), has since said that it has managed to obliterate or at least extensively damage the Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz. Iran has, however, countered this narrative by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, saying the damage would not derail their “civilian” nuclear program. In the wake of Iranian officials saying that they had given a slap across the face to the US, President Donald Trump has threatened to drop bombs on Iran again without any hesitation should the need arise.
Although an initial US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report issued just days after the US strike said that the damage to Iranian nuclear sites set back their program by only a few months, President Trump and other senior officials who may have had access to other intelligence sources, particularly the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), said the program would be derailed by years and even decades. However, a complete Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the strike is yet to be issued and even International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) personnel cannot go anywhere near the sites for reasons of safety, not to mention the fact that Iran has barred them from coming in any case. A full BDA may take several weeks or even months to see the light of day.
This exposes the Achilles’ heel of the attack – arms control experts and former intelligence officials say Iran could revive its nuclear program even without the three nuclear sites that were targeted if it managed to safeguard a sufficient supply of highly enriched Uranium and advanced centrifuges.
IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi has said it was possible that Iran still had a stockpile of highly enriched Uranium (at least up to 60 percent, though the 90 percent threshold should be reached to develop nuclear weapons) despite a 12-day Israeli air campaign and the U.S. air raids. Tehran may have moved the Uranium soon after the first bombing raids by Israel, he said.
This leaves a question mark over the effectiveness of the attacks, even though the sites themselves may have been extensively damaged. But Iran must be given a chance to reach a middle ground – for example, sanctions relief and financial aid in return for giving up its nuclear weapons ambitions. This is precisely what President Trump proposed on Friday – up to US$ 30 billion in sanctions relief could be unlocked if Iran promises not to develop nuclear weapons or attack Israel. Nevertheless, this offer is now on the backburner after the Iranian Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Khamenei rebuked President Trump.
The Middle East North Africa (MENA) region has experienced years of volatility, particularly as a result of Western intervention in Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and several other countries. While both the US and Israel have vehemently denied any plans to have “boots on the ground” in Iran, the world can certainly do without any further Western-led military misadventures in the region. Most of these were fairly stable and prosperous countries before the Western countries tried their hand at “Regime Change”. This time, however, the US has said that Regime Change in Iran was not among its aims, even if Israel may be keen to work towards that.
The Iran-Israel War has also made life difficult for countries such as Sri Lanka that firmly believe in the principles of Non-Alignment. Many of these Global South countries maintain cordial relations with Iran, Israel and the US and supporting one country over the other is out of the question. They have to navigate rather carefully in the turbulent seas of international geopolitics whilst working towards peace in the region.
