The headline for the article in this op-ed space two Sundays back was a Sea Change or Safe Bet. The people chose sea change by a massive distance. 1.3 million votes or so, is a huge lead, even though the BBC termed the recently concluded election, “One of the closest in Sri Lankan history.” That was a patently wrong assessment. Close it wasn’t.
The BBC was probably referring to the second preferences, and the fact that no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold to be the elected President without recourse to a runoff. But all candidates suffered from that deficiency, and it wasn’t only Anura who suffered the fate, though he was comfortably elected president.
The margin of victory – 1.3 million – therefore, indicates that Anura Kumara was the first among equals. He made it through the process of preference counting with his majority intact. In other words the preferences made no dent in his lead.
1.3 million is incidentally about the same lead that Gotabaya Rajapaksa scored over Sajith Premadasa in the previous Presidential contest in 2019. President Maithripala Sirisena and President Mahinda Rajapaksa (in the first outing) were elected to office with much smaller majorities over their next rival, four and a half lakhs, and one lakh 81,000 respectively.
SURGERY
So, there cannot be any cavil over President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s ascension to the highest office. There is no reduced mandate because he was elected with less than 50 percent of the vote, though some have tried to make it out to be so, lamely. Besides the massive lead he registered over Premadasa, he also would probably have his mandate strengthened through a parliamentary majority of substantial proportions, now that he has called an election. It is hard to see the people giving any entity other than the NPP a majority, or a substantial lead over the other parties that would be elected to parliament.
It stands to reason the people took a chance against political parties that couldn’t quite get their act together, even during election time. The NPP was seen as the disciplined party with no pretenses. It was this authenticity that gave it the advantage over the rivals engaging in familiar machine-politics.
Much has been said already about the significance of a left-leaning and one-time revolutionary party taking over at a crucial stage in this country’s consolidation-phase, after a harrowing economic meltdown. The people thought it is only a substantial change of the guard that can repair the damage. They have now, therefore, carried out major surgery on the body politic.
The question is asked, can a bunch of erstwhile revolutionaries deliver, within an unrelenting, competitive and unforgiving capitalist framework? If the going gets tough – as it is bound to in the course of the next few years – would the ex-revolutionaries lapse into rebel mode?
The Comrades, however, are not quite in a place to spring back to renegade-zone. They now form the elected Government. It is easy taking a full-throated revolutionary stance when on the outside looking in, but on the inside looking out, not so much.
Could the NPP adapt? Could they also deal with the Establishment blowback, the counter-revolution if you will? At present, there is nothing but civility, and graciousness from among defeated rivals. But this masks a high degree of resentment from among the machine-politicians, for a party that seemingly redefined the politician.
Politician equated to chancer. It went with the territory almost. People expected familiar doublespeak about serving the people and fighting corruption, from a group of persons that for the most part was in the game to feather their own nests. They were inured to the hypocrisy of politicos, to the point of taking it to be part of comedy and entertainment i.e the spectacle of politicians going through a charade of contortions to maintain a modicum of respect, despite errant ways.
RASCALS
The NPP is different and their worst enemies would have to grant that. But would the image stick when in power? More importantly would the elected Government be able to do the job, right the capsizing ship caught in choppy waters, and deliver for the people?
The bar has not been set too high of course. The most that departing politicians have been able to say for themselves is that they staved off bankruptcy, which is not a stirring testament to governance or management skills.
The new dispensation has cartloads of people with the technocratic and managerial background to set the vessel right, and deliver the goods. Besides that, now that they have the credibility of incumbency, they could retain the best talent in any field, be it finance, education, health or other.
The party also has a remarkably united set of front-liners. Bickering and backbiting, a constant beneath-surface reality in conventional parties, is at least seemingly absent in the NPP. Nobody is openly vying for the leadership slot, as say, Champika Ranawaka does in the SJB.
As the colloquial Americanism goes, what’s there not to like? Again, however, the people have not elected the NPP for the mere pleasure of seeing sweet boy scouts being nice, or super well-behaved. If the Government cannot deliver, the people could opt for a set of rascals from the past, who though venal, could at least lamely boast of delivering them from bankruptcy.
The NPP means business. The speed at which the new President has called for an election is rather amazing and it’s a first. No new President dissolved Parliament the day after taking oaths. It’s a signal that AKD, as the new helmsman, wouldn’t shy away from making the important calls.
It also remains to be seen how the Government would perform once the gloss wears off. The novelty of a new Government, unprecedentedly not hailing from the two-party tradition, has people in thrall. It’s the new team that everyone is waiting to watch, because they are reputed to have brought some exciting talent onto the playing field.
But the odds are stacked against the new kids on the block. They will face establishment blowback, and would have to deliver for a hopeful people who know little or nothing about transnational debt, or the global-reality of developing countries attempting to salvage debt-riddled economies.
SWIPE
At his inaugural speech that was refreshingly short and to the point, President Dissanayake said he doesn’t possess a magic wand. He may not have one, but the people expect him to use it anyway. At least that seems to be the ony way to loosely interpret the weight of people’s expectations.
The delivery on the economy, is in fact left to the captains of the industry, moguls and middlebrow business-ownership. The Government’s job is to lubricate that process, with right policy and the right incentives. But the economy notoriously doesn’t deliver on demand.
How would the NPP deal with an expectant population which likely has unrealistic hopes about how fast the new Government could deliver a good life for them? AKD evoked Kennedy and the ‘ask what you can do for your country’ mantra.
People, especially our fellow citizens, have no such civic conscious self-effacement, and even the consummate politician that AKD is couldn’t probably be able to inspire them into being the change they want to see. Besides, a people bludgeoned and bloodied by their recent travails – particular with regard to the prices of commodities, and essentials – don’t have the strength or gumption to move, let alone rise and shine. They elected a new Government with essentially untested leadership, with great hope, but also in utter desperation.
Most of them don’t necessarily understand the logic, about not having a magic wand. They think one swipe at corruption, and prosperity will rain down in buckets. AKD and his exemplary set of colleagues would have to be ready for what happens when the people realise, it doesn’t quite work that way.
