Sri Lanka is navigating a complex foreign policy landscape as it seeks cooperation from global players, including India, China, Russia, the European Union, the United States, and others, while adhering to the requirements of its IMF-guided economic recovery program. The country must also address the pressing demands of regional security.
Sri Lanka’s approach to regional security is critical in shaping its foreign policy, especially given its strategic location. It must consider the potential ripple effects of international conflicts on its own security landscape.
The recent terror threat in Arugan Bay, which targeted Israeli tourists, was swiftly contained by the Government, acting on state intelligence reports. Security measures were implemented even before foreign Embassies in Sri Lanka issued travel advisories, with the authorities receiving information about the names of the three suspected attackers from Indian intelligence agencies.
Counter-terrorism framework
Such incidents highlight the necessity for Sri Lanka to adopt an informed, adaptable foreign policy that incorporates a robust counter-terrorism framework. The country’s past experiences with terrorism, including the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, underscore the ongoing need for vigilance in monitoring both regional and global threats, as well as the importance of international cooperation on intelligence and security.
During a recent visit by India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that Sri Lanka would never permit its territory to be used in a manner detrimental to India’s security interests.
By promoting a balanced foreign policy rooted in safeguarding national security, Sri Lanka can mitigate external threats and foster a resilient stance that supports its sovereignty, economic recovery, and regional stability.
According to Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya, the main theme of the new Government’s foreign policy will focus on the tangible benefits it can bring to the people. She recently said that the country’s foreign policy must serve the interests of its citizens, rather than the personal ambitions of politicians.
This approach could lay the groundwork for a new foreign policy direction.
The National People’s Power (NPP) Government will reorient its foreign policy to focus on national security, trade, investment, education, and tourism.
Credibility
Corruption within the diplomatic corps has led to a loss of credibility for Sri Lanka in the eyes of other nations.
Amarasuriya acknowledged the current weaknesses in Sri Lanka’s diplomatic engagements, attributing them to a lack of clarity in the country’s foreign policy.
“When we negotiate without knowing what we want, we cannot expect favourable outcomes,” she said.
Countries, particularly India, China, and the US, anticipate a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy following over seven decades of governance dominated by the two main political parties: the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). The election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the NPP, marks a departure from the traditional political establishment.
Indian academics and political analysts said that the President may reveal strategies not yet known to them, with particular interest in how the new administration navigates the influence of China and India, manages foreign debt, and engages in global diplomacy.
The previous Government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was perceived as leaning towards China, while President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s administration maintained strategic ties with China while strengthening relations with India and the West, especially in the context of economic recovery.
A leftist administration such as the NPP is likely to seek to enhance its foreign policy to avoid over-dependence. The NPP Government believes that rebuilding Sri Lanka’s international image is crucial to navigate its challenges and plans introducing professionalism into its Foreign Service.
Those defeated at the last Presidential election said that the NPP Government lacks the experience and resourcefulness to effectively manage the country’s diplomatic relations. In response, Prime Minister Amarasuriya said : “We have become a laughing stock in the international community due to the so-called experts in international negotiations from previous Governments. They were so effective that this country ended up bankrupt?” She questioned as to why the nation’s passport has lost its value and why its citizens face constant hurdles due to a lack of international respect.
The country’s debts have been compounded by non-performing loans, significantly contributing to the nation’s financial crisis, Amarasuriya said. Future foreign investments must be negotiated transparently and based on national interests, rather than the personal ambitions of political leaders that have led to corruption in the past, she said.
The NPP has the political will and the public support needed to reverse the damage inflicted by the previous Government. The new administration aims to balance its relations with India and China more carefully while reorienting the country’s foreign policy to align with domestic priorities.
The country is currently engaged in a complex restructuring process with bilateral creditors, including China and India, as well as multilateral organisations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund(IMF).
A key aspect of the NPP Government’s foreign policy revamp is the restructuring of Sri Lanka’s Foreign Service. Prime Minister Amarasuriya has been critical of the current state of the diplomatic Corps, citing issues of nepotism and cronyism. The NPP plans to reorganise Sri Lanka’s 55 foreign missions, putting top talent in strategically important countries and enhancing training for its diplomats.
“The foreign service has become a reward system for family and friends. We need a professional foreign service with elevated diplomatic skills,” Premier Amarasuriya said, than merely facilitating protocol for visiting officials.
A key requirement of the IMF-guided economic recovery program is demonstrating tangible progress in negotiations with bilateral creditors, which include China, India, and Japan, alongside private bondholders and multilateral financial institutions. These negotiations are likely to focus on reaching agreements on key terms, such as debt forgiveness, extended repayment periods, and reduced interest rates.
India remains one of Sri Lanka’s major trading partners and investors, with strengthened economic ties playing a pivotal role in the country’s economic recovery while simultaneously advancing India’s economic interests.
However, as Sri Lanka’s largest lender, China has a significant economic presence, raising concerns in India about the potential for increased Chinese influence in the region.
Regional security
Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean is crucial to India’s security and maritime interests. A stable and friendly Sri Lanka enhances India’s influence in the region and helps secure vital sea lanes. From India’s perspective, strengthening ties with Sri Lanka is essential for maintaining strategic interests and ensuring regional stability.
Sri Lanka has been a focal point for combined maritime exercises involving India, China, Russia, and other countries, owing to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. Such joint exercises enhance cooperation in intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism operations.
India has a vested interest in promoting stability in Sri Lanka to combat terrorism and organised crime. Joint defence exercises and intelligence-sharing can enhance security for both nations. However, India has often opposed Sri Lanka’s facilitation of Chinese military exercises in its waters, citing broader geopolitical implications for Indian Ocean security. China views Sri Lanka as a crucial partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its growing influence has raised concerns for both India and the United States, leading to some tension between Sri Lanka and these nations.
By deepening military cooperation, India aims to reinforce its influence in South Asia, countering external powers and enhancing its role as a regional leader. The US perceives China’s joint military activities in Sri Lanka as part of a broader strategy to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean.
China’s investments in Sri Lanka, such as the Hambantota Port, have also sparked regional concerns regarding its intentions, particularly in relation to joint naval engagements. As China seeks to strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean, it may explore other avenues, such as maritime security initiatives or joint training programs to address non-traditional threats such as piracy and climate change.
While China’s military strategy reflects a complex balancing act, it is clear that its joint exercises with regional partners such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka signify a shift towards broader engagement, with a focus on tightly scripted ground operations, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR).
The US has linked China’s military engagements in Sri Lanka to a larger pattern of behaviour in the region, perceiving it as a challenge to US interests and the security of its allies, particularly India. Russia’s involvement in the region is often viewed as an attempt to assert influence in a landscape dominated by India and China, with Sri Lanka’s collaboration with Russia leading to friction with both India and the West.
While the US has not directly intervened in Sri Lanka’s military decisions, it has engaged in diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties with the island nation, often advocating for military cooperation. The US is particularly concerned about the dual-use nature of infrastructure projects, such as the Hambantota Harbour Project developed by China, suggesting they could serve military purposes as well.
Looking beyond
In today’s complex and multi-polar world, the situation is no longer about choosing between two camps, as was the case during the Cold War. It is essential to look beyond traditional alliances and consider emerging powers and economies, including India and China, as well as organisations such as BRICS, as pointed out by Dr Amarasuriya.