If you, like me, are a fan of disaster movies, I am sure you remember a few of those movies. The “deadly virus/bacteria that kills nearly all of humanity” is a whole sub genre in this category, with some extending the plot to zombies. I remember a few of those movies such as, Outbreak, Contagion, I Am Legend, Train to Busan (Korean), World War Z, 28 Days Later, The Flu and Pandemic.
I am not very sure about the zombie part, but the core story of these movies is alarmingly, distressingly real. A viral outbreak that could very nearly wipe out humanity is a very real possibility. And they have happened several times in our history. One example is the 1918 flu pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920) an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic, and resulted in the deaths of 50 to 100 million.
From SARS to MERS, we have seen time and again how mysterious diseases could strike us at any time, posing a huge risk to our very existence. But, here is the real problem – we do not even know how, when and where the next big one will strike. Yes, it is a contagion so deadly and mysterious, we know nothing about it – except that it could be the next global epidemic, according to experts at the World Health Organization (WHO).
Code-named ‘Disease X’, this mystery pathogen hasn’t even been discovered yet, but the looming threat of its inevitability has secured it a place on the WHO’s ‘most dangerous’ list: a catalogue of potential future epidemics for which counter measures are insufficient – or don’t exist at all. But here is the catch-22 question: How can a disease that has not even been identified be considered such a serious threat to public health?
Scientists this week said, ‘Disease X’ is a placeholder for a contagious hazard we have not encountered yet, but which is virtually certain at the rate genetic mutations occur. It is a so-called ‘known unknown’ that the WHO says we need to be prepared for. “Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease,” the WHO explained in a recent news release. Just to be certain, the WHO has developed a Research & Development Blueprint that seeks to enable cross-cutting R&D preparedness relevant for an unknown ‘Disease X’ as far as possible.”
There is a plethora of diseases that can morph into a global epidemic or there could be a totally new pathogen that comes out of nowhere. The following diseases are the usual suspects: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF); Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease; Lassa fever; Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS); Nipah and henipa viral diseases; Rift Valley Fever (RVF); and Zika virus. This year, for the first time, the WHO has added the so-called Disease X to the list.
Disease X could come from a variety of sources, including existing viruses that demonstrate new virulence and symptoms (such as Zika), engineered viruses that have escaped from laboratories or used as bio weapons, and infections transferred from animals to humans (bird flu-swine flu etc). In the movies, there are bad guys who want to unleash biological agents on war zones, but there is a real-life possibility of a terror group coming across and using biological weapons such as, viruses. The recent nerve agent attack in Salisbury, England is a stark reminder that chemical and biological attacks are a real, not perceived, threat. Any such attack on a massive scale could indeed make our future very bleak.
But, the one thing that will help these viruses to spread quickly is very much a phenomenon of our times: easy and relatively affordable airline travel. Budget airlines are making it possible for almost everyone to fly. As they say, the whole world is a village and no place on Earth is more than 24 hours away from another. One could be having breakfast in Colombo, lunch in Singapore and dinner in Sydney. And when we travel, microbes do too.
This is why diseases spread quickly around the world. No government can restrict travel, but airports and seaports can take certain precautions to prevent the spread of diseases. For example, during the recent flu outbreaks, most airports installed (non-invasive) thermal scanners to identify passengers who could be running a temperature. This way, passengers suspected of having a fever can be kept away from the general population until they are cleared. It is thus not difficult to imagine how a contagion could travel around the world swiftly and cause a worldwide pandemic causing millions of fatalities.
There is another dimension to vital outbreaks – it is very difficult to develop a cure-all vaccine for viral diseases as the viruses evolve and adapt so quickly. A vaccine that works on one particular pathogen will not work with a mild strain of the same variety. This is a huge challenge for scientists struggling to perfect flu vaccines. However, scientists are striving to develop a universal flu vaccine which could potentially derail the likes of Disease X. Their latest endeavour is a revolutionary flu vaccine that can be taken as a pill.
This is good news for people with a fear of needles and the drug will also not require refrigeration, which will make it easier to transport and more suitable for developing countries with warm climates. Like all vaccines, the medication works by exposing people to a harmless part of a pathogen, such as a protein, which stimulates their immune systems so it launches a stronger response if it encounters the virus again. By containing synthetic pathogen-like proteins rather than biological ones, the new vaccine is not digested and can therefore be taken orally, the researchers at the University of Cardiff claim.
However, one need not be pessimistic at all. As science progresses, they will find ways and means of defeating these pathogens. In the meantime, a few good healthy practices, such as washing one’s hands frequently can also reduce chances of infection across the board. A healthy lifestyle replete with a balanced diet and a moderate amount of exercise can boost your immunity and generally make you healthier. Children too should be advised on good health practices. But the fear of a crippling “superbug” will always prevail and mankind should be ready for any such encounter. It might yet be possible to emerge victorious in this battle if we think positively and use the latest medical advances.