The confirmation of the candidacy of Sajith Premadasa from the United National Party (UNP) has provided the Grand Old Party with hope after many decades in the political wilderness. More importantly, it augurs well for two-party democracy in this country, which was being threatened with extinction.
To say so is not to take sides in the looming presidential contest. Rather, we wish to elaborate on the dangerous trajectory in which political parties were heading in the aftermath of the collapse of the coalition between the two main political rivals, the UNP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in the so-called ‘yahapalanaya’ government.
With President Maithripala Sirisena assuming the leadership of the SLFP - a mantle for which he had no mandate because he was elected primarily with UNP votes - and Mahinda Rajapaksa being marginalised, Rajapaksa acolytes came up with the concept of an alternative political party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
Historically, the Sri Lankan political landscape is not fertile breeding ground for ‘third forces’. Despite years of disaffection with the two major parties, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the traditional ‘third force’, has never been able to capture the imagination of the masses.
Other ‘third’ parties such as the Democratic United National Front led by Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake which broke away from the UNP and the Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya led by Vijaya Kumaratunga which broke away from the SLFP have had their moments of glory but died a natural death once their initial appeal faded away. Most of their stalwarts have returned to the two major parties now.
Despite history saying otherwise, the SLPP has within a very short period of time emerged as the alternative to the UNP. Instead of the SLPP trying desperately to form a coalition with the SLFP, the SLFP is now desperately trying to form a coalition with the SLPP!
That is not because the SLPP carries a special kind of appeal or because it has a programme of action that reverberates with the electorate. It is mostly because the SLFP has haemorrhaged from within to become a ghost of its former self and also because the UNP has failed to live up to its expectations in government.
In fact, the SLPP can hardly be called a democratic entity. It is a party of the Rajapaksas by the Rajapaksas for the Rajapaksas. While the UNP’s process of choosing a presidential candidate did turn ugly at times, there was a democratic process at work, where an individual made a claim and others’ views were sought. It would also be fair to say that the majority view prevailed, though not that of the leadership.
In contrast, in the SLPP, Mahinda Rajapaksa was given sole authority to choose its presidential candidate. The street-smart politician that Rajapaksa was, he kept everyone guessing by saying he will select the candidate ‘most likely to win’ when, in reality, the choice was always Gotabaya Rajapaksa - and that too only because Mahinda Rajapaksa himself could not contest!
Today, the SLFP has been reduced to rubble. Its leader, President Sirisena, will quit office in less than fifty days. Most of its parliamentarians have deserted its sinking ship and decamped to the SLPP. The once mighty party that ruled the country for the most number of years since independence is dying a slow but steady death.
There is no scion of the Bandaranaikes to carry forward the SLFP’s legacy. There is also no other leader with sufficient charisma to take over and resurrect the party. It is abdicating its role as a democratic alternative to the UNP and the SLPP, a party that has room at the top only for one family, is taking on that role. Had the UNP chosen anyone other than Sajith Premadasa as its candidate - Premadasa was hinting at contesting the election, ‘come what may’, with or without his party’s blessings - that would have led to a break up of the UNP too, leaving the SLPP as the only united party.
In such a scenario, the SLPP would be at a distinct advantage and because the SLPP itself is not a democratic entity, democracy in this country would have been in peril. Now, the UNP lives to fight another day, though the battle has only just begun for Sajith Premadasa.
It is important for the country to have a strong and robust opposition. If Sajith Premadasa is a student of history, he will know that by the end of the UNP’s longest stint in power- 17 years from 1977 to 1994 - the party’s popularity was at an all time low. That was because J.R. Jayewardene and his father, Ranasinghe Premadasa had stifled the opposition to such an extent that the UNP believed it was in power for all time and had lost touch with the reality that it was unpopular among the masses.
History repeated itself in the aftermath of the Eelam War. The UNP was in disarray and Mahinda Rajapaksa believed he was invincible - until the election results came in on the morning of January 9, 2015 leaving an entire nation stunned but pleasantly surprised.
Now that we have two candidates from two major political parties, let them fight the good fight, not on the streets but from campaign rallies and through the media. Let them state their case before the nation and hopefully, with the hindsight of what happened four years ago, the country will choose wisely and correctly.