Natural calamities are an inescapable fact of life, wherever we live in the world. The frequency of these natural disasters has increased due to climate change. Hence the world is experiencing a plethora of natural disasters, from wildfires in Australia to floods in Europe. This year’s weather showed us what it looks like to live in a world that has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius. And it is likely to heat up by another 1.5 degrees to 2 degrees Celsius if immediate measures are not taken to mitigate climate change, as pledged at this year’s COP26 Summit in Glasgow.
We pen these lines in the backdrop of the 17th anniversary of the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 which falls today. The massive tsunami, triggered by an undersea quake that measured 9.3 on the Richter scale, ravaged 14 countries in the Indian Ocean, killing nearly 230,000 people, including around 40,000 in Sri Lanka. It was the biggest natural catastrophe in the world in living memory, the adverse effects of which are still felt today.
Back then, even though the US geological survey had warned the Indian Ocean Rim countries surrounding Indonesia of the possibility of a massive tsunami following the seaquake, there was no proper mechanism in any of those countries to convey that message to coastal residents. The result was the loss of many precious lives, with whole families wiped out in some instances.
Since then, the Indian Ocean has received a new tsunami warning system, augmented by tsunami warning siren towers and SMS broadcast systems in individual countries. These systems were successfully tested in both real and simulated situations, giving at least 30 minutes for residents to reach higher ground, away from the path of the raging waters.
The one major problem associated with tsunami warnings is that earthquakes and undersea quakes cannot still be predicted in advance, despite the technological developments in this sphere. Depending on the location and ferocity of the seaquake and the resultant tsunami, there might not be much time for residents to scramble to safety, as witnessed during the March 2011 tsunami in Japan, which killed around 20,000 people. Yet, scientists are engaged in research to understand tsunamis in greater detail, with an eye on predictions and saving lives. Sri Lankan scientists too should be involved in these efforts, as another tsunami might take place anytime and tremors are taking place in Sri Lanka intermittently.
Not only earthquakes, predicting other natural disasters from floods to droughts has become somewhat difficult in the face of rapid changes in the world’s climate patterns as a result of climate change. Decades earlier, our farming and fishing communities could predict rain and drought with unfailing accuracy, so that they could plan their activities accordingly. Now, however, such predictions cannot be made by even the old timers as freak weather patterns have emerged. Rainfalls on the earlier ‘dry’ months and the usually rainy months go dry.
This does not mean that we have to give up in despair. Sri Lanka lacks some of the most advanced weather prediction equipment and weather supercomputers available in other countries. In the early 80s, in the nascent days of local television, they showed the satellite weather maps during the nightly news bulletins, but we cannot see this now, even though the art and science of meteorology has advanced by leaps and bounds. Our authorities should address such shortcomings and seek access to the most reliable and up-to-the minute weather data and pictures. It is well worth the recurrent costs and the initial investment.
In fact, anyone with a laptop or smartphone connected to the Internet can get almost real-time weather data for virtually any city in the world, but only a certain segment of the population can afford those. All others rely on the Met Department and the public broadcasters to get weather information. Thus it is up to the authorities to augment the Met Department with the latest equipment and also address its shortage of personnel. Schoolchildren can be encouraged to take up weather forecasting as a career and universities too should have courses in this field.
In the meantime, mechanisms must be evolved to prevent natural disasters and mitigate their effects when they do occur. Many areas in Colombo are prone to floods even after a moderate shower thanks largely to an antiquated storm water drainage system. The World Bank and several donor nations have stepped in to upgrade this system and it has been partly completed in areas such as Thunmulla. It is no doubt a massive undertaking that will take several years to complete. But it is well worth the time and investment as floods in the city are economically and socially disastrous.
The people must also heed the warnings given by the Met Department and other related agencies such as the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO). The NBRO regularly warns people not to build houses and other structures on earth slip-prone slopes in hilly areas, but these warnings are rarely heeded. Many preventable deaths occur as a result of this callous attitude.
Education and awareness are key to preventing and perhaps escaping from natural disasters. In countries such as Japan and Chile, tsunami drills are periodically conducted for schoolchildren so that they know what to do when the real thing happens. Such an approach should be adopted here, drawing lessons from the many natural disasters we have experienced over the years, including the global health emergency of Covid-19. Natural disasters will still happen, but the next generation will at least know how to deal with them.